The Sun Belt Has Time...But Shouldn't Linger
With Texas State’s official departure from the Sun Belt formalized earlier this week, realignment talk was once again on the minds of plenty of college football fans. With the PAC-12 having enough members to field a FBS football conference in 2026, all eyes have moved to the Sun Belt. What will their next move be?
To their credit, the Sun Belt has been anticipating this move from Texas State for a long time. Some reports are that it was as early as fall of 2024 once the first rumblings of the Bobcats desire to leave. As a result, the conference has had the opportunity to plan their next move, or moves. And now that the moment is here, what will they do?
Well, nothing immediately it seems.
According to Yahoo Sports, Sun Belt executives held meetings to discuss expansion yesterday, with no decision being imminent. That’s not surprising. There seems to be some disagreement amongst the current members on who should join next. Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky have been floated as the most serious contenders.
Then there is a scenario where they sit at 13 for the 2026 season potentially, and see where other dominoes might fall. The PAC 12 has solidified as a FBS conference and has a TV deal in place. These two things were not the case the last time they made overtures towards schools like UNLV, Air Force, Tulane, and Memphis. Could those talks heat up again in the coming months? There’s also the possibility that Tulane could inquire about the ACC, and there could be mutual interest. The Green Wave has a history like SMU of playing big time football in the south, albeit theirs was quite some time ago. And their academic prestige would appeal to ACC presidents as well.
None of this is official, but none of it is also off the table. If anything does happen to the American Athletic Conference, the AAC and the Sun Belt will have battle lines drawn. It will be a matter of who will strike first, and in the case of the AAC, are they willing to forego their obsession with markets in exchange for passionate and engaged football programs.
If the PAC 12 extended invitations to let’s say, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA, that would put a significant dent in the AAC’s membership and overall brand power. It would also significantly shift the makeup of the conference East. And this is where things get interesting.
A couple weeks ago, the gentlemen on the Sun Belt Syndicate stream floated a theory of if the AAC were to potentially take some Sun Belt schools, which would they take? There was general consensus around JMU and Appalachian State as obvious answers. JMU’s transition to FCS has been exceptionally smooth, and Appalachian State is a known football brand, even amongst football elite. If for no other reason, because they beat them so frequently. JMU also has AAC affiliations for their nationally ranked Women’s Lacrosse squad and Women’s Swim and Dive.
After that, there seemed to be a tie between Marshall and Coastal Carolina. Marshall is definitely the more storied program of the two. Coastal Carolina has been the most recent flashpoint in terms of national recognition, and their baseball team was just in the MCWS. Either or both could fit easily into a new mostly East and eastern portion of the central time zone focused AAC.
Then there’s the somewhat wild cards. Could the AAC go for Louisiana to try and keep that state in the footprint? Georgia State fits their original focus of “markets” but at the moment that’s about it. And going off the board a bit here, what about Delaware? Yes, they are a new member of CUSA, and reports are that their overtures towards the AAC were originally rebuffed. But in a reworked conference in desperate need of cohesion, they fit nicely into the geographical footprint of Army, Navy, Temple, and old CAA foe JMU potentially.
So, if Rice, Tulane, UTSA, and Memphis all left for various reasons, this is what a new AAC could look like given some of the above mentioned options for football:
Army
Temple
Delaware
Navy
James Madison
Marshall
Appalachian State
East Carolina
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Florida Atlantic
South Florida
UAB
Tulsa
Admittedly, this puts Tulsa and to a lesser extent UAB out on an island, but in terms of a 14 team football playing league, this looks pretty enticing.
Now, all of this is moot if there is no movement in the next few years. But history has shown us that there’s likely to be some sort of movement. Who predicted Texas and Oklahoma doing what they did, right?
The AAC also has the advantage of a better TV deal it can offer. It would be reworked with schools like Memphis and Tulane leaving specifically, but there’s still plenty of meat on the AAC bone with the service academies as affiliate football members and a potential ECU and South Florida finding winning form once again. Even a reworked deal could entice some Sun Belt schools.
But, as previously mentioned, if the AAC were to go after Sun Belt schools, they would have to forego their obsession with TV markets. They would be getting exceptionally passionate fan bases and storied football in return, aka a better actual on TV product, but they would have to slightly change their conference identity. This is an identity that goes back to the conference when it was in its original Big East form from the late 70s-2010s, where markets and basketball were the focus. However, conferences evolve, so the ball would be in their court.
All of this said, most Sun Belt schools that are in the conference right now aren’t going to just jump immediately. Texas State was actively looking and there are no indications others are. Furthermore the conference has already reached out to ECU to at least start dialogue between the two perhaps in anticipation of AAC upheaval. If you ask any Sun Belt East fan base which school they are dying to have brought into the fold, it’s ECU. And if the money in the AAC is not as lucrative, that move is a lot easier than shifting half of the Sun Belt East.
So, this is of course all speculation. There are no reports of the PAC-12 looking to expand more, or the ACC or Big 12 for that matter. So the dust has seemingly settled for the time being. But the Sun Belt needs to be 2-3 steps ahead of everyone if it wants to position itself as the best conference outside of the perceived Power 4. And sitting around waiting without doing initial negotiations with potential members, no matter how far fetched the proposition might be, is not going to cut it.
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